The NHL league enjoys a prominent presence at both US-friendly bookies and sportsbooks that cater to international punters. This is all thanks to the sport itself being pretty popular overall, along with the prestige of the NHL league. In addition, wagering on NHL events opens up many opportunities for punters since the league offers great versatility in terms of the bets you can place.
It is important to keep in mind, however, that while wagering on sports can be very entertaining, the gambling aspect of sports betting can make betting responsibly difficult at times. This is especially true for NHL ice hockey, where predicting the possible outcomes is notoriously tricky, and NHL punters who are new to the sport can use all the help they can get.
The Martingale The Fibonacci The D’Alembert System The Labouchere System Reverse Labouchere The Paroli The 1-3-2-6 System The Contra D’Alembert System The Kelly Criterion Flat Betting Arbitrage Betting Value Betting Matched Betting The Zig-Zag Theory The Back-To-Back Strategy Fading The Public Skilled Proposition Bets Attention to the Goaltender ConclusionWagering systems and strategies are something that can be of great help to such punters, and along with fresh bettors, seasoned punters can find strategies that can be of great use to them as well. Regardless of which type of NHL punter you are, you will definitely be able to find a strategy or system that perfectly caters to your own wagering preferences.
Negative Progression Systems
The systems we will start with are bankroll management strategies that feature negative progression. They revolve around the practice of placing bets that grow larger when you lose. In addition, they typically dictate that you should either lower your stake after a win or stop the betting session entirely.
These systems are designed for even money bets and are fairly popular within some wagering circles, but they are, in general, seen as very aggressive. So much so, in fact, that we generally advise new punters to avoid them early on. For those who are more experienced, these systems can provide a controlled yet daring way to wager, but either way, one should always be cautious if they decide to give these betting systems a try.
The Martingale
The first system we will focus on is the Martingale. It is fairly straightforward: double your stake each time you lose an NHL bet, and continue doing so until you manage to win. This will guarantee that when you do win, you will be able to compensate for all previous losses and some extra money.
On paper, this sounds like a sure-fire way to make a profit. In reality, however, there is a major problem with this system. Namely, you will not be able to wager infinitely due to having a limited amount of money to work with. This means that it is very likely you will lose your entire bankroll before you manage to score a win.
In addition, the sheer number of losses will often mean that your actual profit will be relatively low, while your stake will grow quite substantially. Here is an example of a series of bets, and for the sake of simplicity, they have odds of 2.0:
| Martingale Bets on Odds of 2.0 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Size of Bet | Result | Win/Lose Amount |
| $10 | Lose | $10 lost thus far |
| $20 | Lose | $30 lost thus far |
| $40 | Lose | $70 lost thus far |
| $80 | Lose | $150 lost thus far |
| $160 ($310 wagered thus far) | Win | $320 payout ($10 profit won thus far) |
A profit of $10 does not look all that impressive, considering we risked $310 on the entire endeavor. Ultimately, this strategy is only suitable for daring NHL punters looking to spice up their wagering routine in a dangerous but organized way. If you wish to win big and minimize the risks as much as possible, however, then it will be better to steer clear of the Martingale.
The Fibonacci
The Fibonacci is a series of numbers where each subsequent number is a sum of the previous two, and it has seen various uses throughout the decades. The sequence starts at 0 and continues onwards to 1 (0+1), 2 (1+1), 3 (1+2), 5(2+3), 8(5+3), 13(5+8), etc. In betting, punters have used this series of numbers to determine how many units a bettor must wager after they lose, and for those new to wagering, a betting unit is the minimum base bet one would place when wagering. After a win, you must go back two numbers down the sequence. If you were to use the Fibonacci sequence to bet on NHL events with a $5 base unit, a betting session could look like this:
| Fibonacci Sequence Bets on Odds of 2.0 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Units | Size of Bet | Result | Win/Lose Amount |
| 0+1 = 1 | 1×5 = $5 | Lose | $5 lost thus far |
| 1+1= 2 | 2×5 = $10 | Lose | $15 lost thus far |
| 1 + 2 = 3 | 3×5 = $15 | Lose | $30 lost thus far |
| 2+3 = 5 | 5×5 = $25 | Lose | $55 lost thus far |
| 3 + 5 = 8 | 8×5 = $40 ($95 wagered thus far) | Win | $80 payout ($15 lost thus far) |
| 3 | 3×5 = $15 ($110 wagered thus far) | Win | $30 (broke even) |
| 1 | 1×5 = $5 ($115 wagered thus far) | Win | $10 ($5 won thus far) |
Here, we can observe several key factors of the Fibonacci wagering system. Firstly, it took two wins for the fictional bettor to break even. Secondly, it took $115 for this person to make said $5 profit. In addition, there is no guarantee that the bettor would have definitely won at that point. Remember that a loss does not increase or decrease your chances of winning the next time, and thinking otherwise means you have fallen victim to the gambler’s fallacy. Each subsequent bet is independent from the previous one, so ultimately, the losing streak in the above example could have continued until no money was left in the person’s bankroll.
Ultimately, there is a degree of control present, which is where its main value lies, at least to those fine with risking relatively large amounts of money. Other than that, it is, like the Martingale, best left well enough alone since it suffers from the same setbacks.
The D’Alembert System
This is yet another negative progression system, wherein your NHL bets are increased as you lose. It is far less risky than the Martingale, however. Here, all you need to do is add another base unit to your next bet and continue doing so until you eventually win. Once you do win, however, you need to lower your stake by one unit. This is what a potential D’Alembert cycle looks like:
| Fibonacci Sequence Bets on Odds of 2.0 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Size of Bet | Result | Win/Lose Amount |
| $2 (base unit) | Loss | $2 lost thus far |
| 2 + 2 = $4 | Loss | $6 lost thus far |
| 4 + 2 = $6 | Loss | $12 lost thus far |
| 6 + 2 = $8 | Win | $16 payout ($2 lost thus far) |
| 8 – 2 = $6 | Win | $12 payout ($4 won thus far) |
Evidently, this system is far less dangerous than the Martingale and the Fibonacci, but it will take longer to compensate for your losses. Moreover, it being safer to use than other negative progression systems does not necessarily mean it is “safe” in general, as we once again run into the problem of how lengthy losing streaks can be costly. You could mitigate that by returning to one unit every three losses, for instance, but you could still part with your entire bankroll before you manage to make a profit.
The Labouchere System
The Labouchere is, by far, the most reasonable negative progression system one can come across. It is also a bit more complicated than the other ones, but not in the sense that it requires complicated calculations.
Let us say we have the following series of numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5. The numbers will help us determine just how much we need to wager. If we win, we get rid of a number at each end, leaving us with 2 – 3 – 4. If we lose, we add the sum of the first and last numbers to the sequence. If we are starting from scratch, our number is six, and the sequence looks like this: 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 6. This is pretty much the entire process, and you continue the cycle until you win enough times for you to use the last number as the stake and then get rid of it as you win for the last time. Below, you can see a demonstration of a full cycle:
| Labouchere System Cycle | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sequence | Bet | Win/Lose | Resulting Sequence |
| 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 | 6 | Win | 2 – 3 – 4 |
| 2 – 3 – 4 | 6 | Lose | 2 – 3 – 4 – 6 |
| 2 – 3 – 4 – 6 | 8 | Lose | 2 – 3 – 4 – 6 – 8 |
| 2 – 3 – 4 – 6 – 8 | 10 | Win | 3 – 4 – 6 |
| 3 – 4 – 6 | 9 | Win | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | Win | – |
Ultimately, it yet again leaves you vulnerable to multiple losses. The amount you could lose with the Labouchere is technically lower in the short run, however, and you can adjust it to make progress even slower. Therefore, if you insist on using negative progression when you place NHL bets, this might be the best option.
Positive Progression Systems
All in all, positive progression systems are far superior to their negative progression counterparts. Although they will not, technically, aid you in winning more, what they are useful for is giving you a comfortable and relatively safe way to control just how much money you will wager. Like other progression systems, they only work with even money bets.
Their one true potential disadvantage is how they reward winning, which can mean that going on a lucky streak can lead to wagering far more than you would have bet otherwise. Sometimes winning a lot can trick a bettor into believing their next wager will also be successful, and this is called the hot hand fallacy, which can be just as harmful as the typical gambler’s fallacy. To avoid such scenarios, imposing a win limit on your system of choice if it does not include such a limit by default is recommended.
Reverse Labouchere
As suggested by its name, the Reverse Labouchere is a variation of the traditional Labouchere system but used in reverse. Here, you will need to remove the first and the last number after a loss, while winning entails adding the sum of the numbers at each end of the sequence. The following series of sequences demonstrates an entire Labouchere cycle:
| Reverse Labouchere System Cycle | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sequence | Bet | Win/Lose | Resulting Sequence |
| 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 | 6 | Win | 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 6 |
| 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 6 | 7 | Lose | 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 |
| 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 | 7 | Win | 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 7 |
| 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 7 | 9 | Lose | 3 – 4 – 5 |
| 3 – 4 – 5 | 8 | Win | 3 – 4 – 5 – 8 |
| 3 – 4 – 5 – 8 | 11 | Lose | 4 – 5 – 22 |
| 4 – 5 – 22 | 9 | Lose | – |
As you can see, losing can end the cycle quickly, but winning can technically continue the cycle into infinity. To combat this, you can follow our earlier advice and utilize a win limit when you make use of this betting system. Otherwise, you could risk losing your winnings, and you might find yourself betting for a far longer time than initially planned.
The Paroli
The Paroli is the opposite of Martingale, and it is easy to get used to. After you have decided how much your initial stake will be, you can start betting and double your stake after each win until you manage to win three times. Then, you need to go back to betting the initial stake. In addition, wagering only the initial stake should also happen after a loss. It is all as simple as it sounds, making the Paroli a beginner-friendly system.
| Paroli Bets on Odds of 2.0 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Size of Bet | Result | Win/Lose Amount |
| $5 (base unit) | Win | $10 payout |
| 5 x 2 = $10 | Win | $20 payout |
| 10 x 2 = $20 | Win | $40 payout |
| $5.00 | Win | $10 payout ($40 profit thus far) |
| 5 x 2 = $10 | Lose | $30 won thus far |
| $5.00 | Win | $10 Payout ($35 profit thus far) |
Like previously discussed systems, the Paroli does not increase your chances of winning. Instead, it is simply yet another simple and efficient bankroll management solution that will help you avoid large losses when you wager on NHL events.
The 1-3-2-6 System
This system bears a resemblance to the Paroli system. Here, however, the numbers refer to the number of units you need to wager after a win, as opposed to always doubling after you win. This is how this system works:
- First, choose your base unit. To keep things simple, we will go with a $10 wager.
- Your first bet entails wagering 1x times your base unit, so the first bet is $10, and you won.
- Since the previous wager was successful, now you need to wager three times your base unit. Therefore, you must now stake $30.
- If you lose the previous bet, what follows is you going back to wagering just 1 unit.
- If you win your $30 bet, however, you can continue. The next number is 2, therefore two units need to be wagered.
- Winning the $20 bet will lead you to the last wager in this cycle. To finish the cycle, you will need to place $60 as a bet, and either stop betting or start from the beginning regardless of the result of said bet.
Here is a summary of two 1-3-2-6 cycles:
| The 1-3-2-6 Bets on Odds of 2.0 Summary | ||
|---|---|---|
| Size of Bet | Result | Win/Lose Amount |
| 10 x 1 = $10 | Win | $20 payout |
| 10 x 3 = $30 | Lose | $20 lost thus far |
| 10 x 1 = $10 | Win | $20 payout |
| 10 x 3 = $30 | Win | $60 payout |
| 10 x 2 = $20 | Win | $40 payout ($40 won thus far) |
| 10 x 6 = $60 | Lose | $20 lost thus far |
As is with other progression betting systems, this one does not “work”, i.e., you will not win more money by utilizing it. It is, instead, more of a bankroll management solution than anything else. It forces you to see just how much you have lost and won overall, and the clear indication of when a cycle should end will be helpful in preventing you from losing too much of your bankroll when you place bets.
The Contra D’Alembert System
Although the previous systems we have discussed are very simple and easy to work with, the Contra D’Alembert might be the most newbie-friendly one there is. To utilize it, you will once again need to pick a base unit, and usually, 1% or 2% of your entire bankroll is advised.
As for the bets themselves, how much you wager is determined by whether you win or lose. Winning means that your next stake should be increased by one unit, and this goes for all subsequent winnings. For instance, if your initial stake was $5, the second one will be $10 if you manage to win. Another win will lead you to wager $15, then $20, and so on. On the other hand, a loss means that the following bet must be lowered by one unit. Therefore, if your base unit was $5, and you had reached $20 but lost, the next wager must be lowered to $15.
| The Contra D’Alembert System Bets on Odds of 2.0 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Size of Bet | Result | Win/Lose Amount |
| $5 (base unit) | Win | $10 payout |
| 5 + 5 = $10 | Win | $20 payout |
| 10 + 5 = $15 | Win | $30 payout |
| 15 + 5 = $20 | Lose | $30 won thus far |
| 20 – 5 = $15 | Lose | $15 won thus far |
| 15 – 5 = $10 | Win | $20 payout (25 won thus far) |
All in all, utilizing this system minimizes your risk of incurring large losses, which is great for risk-averse NHL punters.
Other Bankroll Management Systems
Apart from traditional positive and negative progression systems, there are also some specific ones that can also be of use. The first one we will introduce you to is the Kelly Criterion, which is an advanced bank management strategy that is well-liked by a lot of punters, although it is fairly complex. The other strategy is flat betting, which is, in contrast, perfect for NHL fans who are new to sports betting.
The Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion was developed by Bell labs researcher John Larry Kelly Jr., who described the formula in 1956. It is a method of wagering that dictates how much you should wager depending on the size of your bankroll and your probability of actually winning, and it only works on bets where you have an edge over the bookmaker. This is the formula in question:
F = (bp – q)/b
Here, F is the Kelly Criterion, that is, the percentage of your bankroll you can wager. Onwards we have the B, which is the decimal odds of the bet, while P and Q represent the probability of losing and winning, respectively. To demonstrate, we will use a fictional coin toss bet where the odds are 2.00, but we know the coin has been tinkered with, and its chances of winning are actually 60%. First, we can find how likely it is that the bet will lose, which is calculated as so:
P = 1 – Q = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4 = %40.
Now, we will use these numbers in the formula:
F = (bp – q)/b = (2.00 x 0.4 – 0.6)/2.00 = (0.8 – 0.6)/2.00 = 0.2/2.00 = 0.1 = 10%
According to the Kelly Criterion, the best amount to wager here is 10% of our bankroll.
Some NHL punters will quickly note how large 10% is. After all, it is seldom recommended to wager more than 5% of one’s bank, not to mention numerous punters go for even lower fractions in order to make losses less damaging. This risky approach is one of the main disadvantages of what we call the full Kelly. A fractional Kelly is, in comparison, far more popular, and variants include the half, the quarter, and the eighth Kelly. If we are to try this approach instead and we go for a half Kelly, our bet would be 5% of our bankroll, which is far more reasonable.
It should be noted that a fractional Kelly significantly lowers the volatility of the bets. This means that you will technically win less, but your losses will also be far smaller, and this is one of the main appeals of this type of Kelly Criterion.
Another disadvantage of the full Kelly and, to an extent, of the Kelly Criterion as a whole, is that calculating your chances of winning can be very difficult both in a mathematical sense and in terms of the information necessary in general. You need to be a person who is nearly an expert at NHL betting who has unparalleled skill at analyzing the teams and skaters, the game, and anything else that can lead to one result or another. If you are somehow wrong in your calculations and use the full Kelly, the entire method falls apart. Although the fractional Kelly can help mitigate any minor miscalculations, it still does not remove the difficulty factor.
If we keep all of this in mind, the Kelly Criterion is fairly niche. Like other systems, you will not be more likely to win by using it, but it can help you preserve your bankroll so long as you manage to calculate the Kelly accurately. In addition, you could go for a fractional Kelly, which is safer as opposed to a full Kelly.
Flat Betting
Wagering on NHL matches can be a rollercoaster of emotions. On the one hand, you have the game itself, with its twists and exciting gameplay, and on the other, you have the impact staking money has on a bettor’s psyche. Although this is something that makes NHL wagering all the more appealing, the impact this can have on one’s wagering decisions cannot be understated. Many punters have placed large bets in an attempt to make up for previous losses. As established, this daring approach to betting can be very dangerous.
One of the best ways to combat this way of thinking is to stick to a modest bankroll management system, and Flat Betting is just that. It is one of the easiest bankroll management systems to use out there. As the terminology implies, when you utilize this system, you wager the same percent of your bankroll each time. So, for instance, if you have $1000 to spare for sports betting, you can decide to only wager 1% of your bankroll, and will therefore never wager over $10.
Strategies for Sharp NHL Punters
The following strategies involve practices that turn betting from a gamble, to a technically guaranteed way to make a profit off of sports betting. As such, they demand a significant amount of time from punters, and they can also be difficult to execute in general.
These techniques have their similarities, but they also differ from one another quite substantially. Regardless, they will all take time to get used to, and a bettor’s success will, for the most part, be reliant on their own dedication to the practice, how careful they are, and how much time they can devote to betting. This is why they are designated as sharp strategies. Only punters seeking to turn betting into a profession can actually make proper use of them.
Arbitrage Betting
The concept behind arbitrage betting is fairly simple. If there is a discrepancy between the two outcomes of a bet, which makes wagering on both outcomes a certain way to make money, then this is an arbitrage opportunity. The two bets cannot be placed on the same sportsbook, of course, which is why using two sportsbooks or one bookie and one betting exchange is absolutely crucial. Speaking of which, the process is similar, but with a betting exchange, you are looking to back and lay the same bet at the respective website.
If you do everything right, the bet in and of itself is truly risk-free. However, this does not account for any of the issues that can happen due to other factors. Firstly, one of the sportsbooks might decide to cancel your bet and, in doing so, destroy your arb, leaving you with an ordinary bet at the other sportsbook or the betting exchange.
In addition, the risk of being limited is of great concern to pretty much all arb bettors. Soft sportsbooks are notorious for gubbing accounts if they suspect the bettors are arbing. Things as simple as not wagering with rounded-up sums, wagering too much money, placing bets on niche leagues, and not taking advantage of promotions can immediately flag your account as suspicious for being a potential arbitrage bettor.
Thankfully, the NHL is pretty popular, and although it is not a behemoth the size of the NFL in terms of popularity, it is still large enough to be appropriate for arbing. Note that this is only one thing in a slew of potential problems, and sadly, not all of them can be avoided simply by the virtue of betting on hockey.
In addition, you will need to dedicate many hours of your week to arbing if you want to be a successful arb bettor. Familiarizing yourself with the software necessary to find arbs quickly and efficiently is a must, and you will also be placing lots and lots of arb bets on a daily basis so that you can actually make a reasonable profit. Between this and the risks involved, arbing is not for everyone. If you are dedicated and looking to turn NHL betting into a second source of income, then it is a possibility you can consider.
Value Betting
Value betting is one of the most popular sharp betting strategies out there. When you wager based on the value, you are betting on odds that are too good to be true. Odds like this are overly generous and show that, for one reason or another, the sportsbook in question has underestimated an outcome’s chances of occurring.
In general, there are several things that can lead to such differences between the odds and the actual probability. It might be just an error, but in some cases, the odds might also shift if a sportsbook is trying to adjust them so that both sides of a listing are getting equal engagement.
A coin flip can help you better understand this concept. Essentially, a coin toss’ outcomes have a 50% chance of occurring each, which will translate to decimal odds of 2.00. If a sportsbook has not made any mistakes, the odds it would offer for heads and tails would both be 1.9, accounting for the bookie’s vigorish. Now let us say that a fictional punter was considering placing a bet on heads, but decided to wait. The next time they decided to check the sportsbook’s listings, they saw that the odds for heads had improved to 2.1. This is a value bet worth placing since the actual probability would suggest odds of 2.0 at most. To know just how much value said bet has, we can use this formula:
Value = (Probability x Decimal odds)-1 = (0.5 x 2.1)-1 = 1.05-1= 0.05
Since the number exceeds 0, we know that this is a value bet, and this is the basic concept behind this strategy. It can be applied to pretty much any NHL bet, so long as there is value present, of course. Finding such bets is easier said than done, however.
You will first need to figure out the actual probability of an event. If you specialize in NHL betting, you can do this on your own by taking into account things such as player injuries, recent performances, the matchup itself, and the like, but there are several ways you can make this easier. Firstly, you could take a shortcut and calculate the actual probability from bets offered at sharp sportsbooks by using this formula: Implied Probability = (1/Decimal Odds) x 100. Then you can line shop and compare the sharp result to the implied probability of the offers at soft sportsbooks. If this also sounds time-consuming, you could opt for using software that automatically compares the odds for you and offers you value betting opportunities. Either way, having accounts at numerous bookmakers that cover NHL events is a must.
Although value betting is, for the most part, a sound strategy, it does have some disadvantages. Firstly, it can be difficult to wrap one’s head around the concept because you will need to completely change the way you pick your bets. It is mainly the value that matters here, so you will, at times, need to wager on outcomes you are not confident will win. So long as the value is there, however, such bets are considered good and will be beneficial to your bankroll in the long run. Getting used to this can be a hurdle, but so long as you are persistent and tread carefully, you will become a successful punter with time.
This leads us to the next disadvantage, which is that finding value bets can be a bit difficult and, most importantly, can take a lot of time if you wish to do the calculations on your own. Thankfully, there is software that can do all the work for you, as we mentioned earlier, but the best ones can be costly. Therefore, this is an additional expense you must account for when you designate how much of your money you can spend on betting.
In addition, if a sportsbook manages to find out that you are value betting, your account might be gubbed. In such situations, you may be restricted to wagering with very small sums of money and you will lose access to promotions. Although value betting is a bit more difficult to catch than techniques such as arbing, there is still a potential risk if you are not careful and only place value bets, so this is another hurdle NHL punters should look to avoid.
Matched Betting
In a way, matched betting resembles arbing. When punters partake in matched betting, they once again utilize two sports betting websites. The two strategies do differ in several significant ways, however.
First of all, here you will be utilizing the bonuses and promotions offered at sportsbooks, especially the ones aimed at newcomers to the sportsbooks. In addition, you will also need to make sure that one of the websites is a betting exchange. This way, you place a back bet at one of your ordinary bookies, and you can then lay the very same bet on the betting exchange. Laying a bet is, essentially, wagering that an outcome will not occur.
Here, the promotion ensures that regardless of who wins, you will cover both your current stakes and the qualifying bet you had made earlier in the process to acquire the bonus. Additionally, a profit is also guaranteed.
Like arbing, there are some risks involved. Firstly, this is yet another practice frowned upon by conventional bookmakers. You can, therefore, expect limitations if you fail to cover your tracks.
In addition, mistakes are not unheard of, especially since you will be placing many matched bets one after another. When this happens, you can lose money, seeing as your matched bet will turn into just a regular wager. Said bet will likely cost you, since you will have no way of guaranteeing a profit. You will also run into the same problem if a sportsbook decides to void your bet.
NHL Betting Strategies
The NHL playoffs, as well as the regular season, are quite eventful, and they provide lots of exciting moments and many opportunities to place bets that can be quite lucrative. Since the level of skill and physical prowess demanded from the players are both quite high, you will find that there are many ways you can factor these aspects of NHL hockey into your wagering strategy.
The Zig-Zag Theory
This is a betting strategy that is popular among punters who wager on the NHL’s playoffs. It is centered on the idea that each game is affected by the previous match a team had played. Basically, if a team has suffered a loss in their prior game, said players are more likely to win compared to their opponents.
The reasoning behind this theory is human psychology. Losing can sting quite a lot, and it will often inspire players to perform far better during an event that follows a loss. In addition, the stakes are far higher during the playoffs since enough losses can lead to the team being eliminated and thus unable to continue competing for the Stanley Cup.
The Back-To-Back Strategy
NHL hockey is considered one of the most difficult sports in the USA, and this is mainly for two reasons. Firstly, the sport itself is incredibly strenuous. It is very physically demanding, regardless of which position a skater takes during the game, and on top of that, injuries are not uncommon.
In addition, NHL seasons are densely packed. Each season consists of 82 games, and it runs from October to April. This means that teams will often play multiple games per week, and four games in six nights is not exactly an abnormal situation, nor are times when two games in three nights need to be played.
Back-to-backs, in particular, are also to be expected, and given just how heavily fatigue can impact even the best of players, it is often the case that the team in question will not perform as well as typically expected. This is why it is, in many cases, a good idea to fade said teams and back their opponents instead. Naturally, you must also consider other factors when making your wagering decisions. If both teams are fairly equal in terms of players and previous performances, though, this is a good way to make a decision.
Fading The Public
This is another classic way of deciding which team to back, especially when it comes to the moneyline. As for why this is a strategy many punters swear by, it is no secret that the vast majority of bettors at what we call soft sportsbooks are recreational punters. Most of them tend to wager based on their emotions rather than things such as scheduling, the value of the bets, player injuries, and the like, which means that they will often make unfounded predictions. Moreover, there are many punters who simply back the teams they love and hope for the best, while others just focus on the favorites or bet over when it comes to totals due to cognitive bias.
This can present you with some excellent opportunities. Since casual bettors will sometimes focus on a particular outcome, leaving the other one with fewer bets than expected, a sportsbook might improve the odds of the unpopular option to make it more appealing. If you use your knowledge and experience to check if the outcome of this bet is plausible, you can therefore wager on it and take advantage of the great odds.
Never Wager on Unskilled Proposition Bets
Props are a favorite of many NHL punters across the world. They can be very entertaining and potentially rewarding in the long run. However, if making money off of betting is your main priority, it is crucial to know which props to focus on and which ones to avoid, which is where the distinction between skilled and fun props comes in.
Basically, if you wish to wager on specials and make money, you should only focus on skilled props and never wager on fun props. Skilled proposition bets will allow you to make educated guesses regarding a bet’s outcome based on your wagering skills, the information you have regarding the NHL, and your ability to analyze the data you can find. With longshot props, this is impossible to do, and winning such bets is more often than not a matter of pure luck.
Pay Close Attention to the Goaltender
Goalies are, without a doubt, the most influential players on the ice rink. A great goaltender can lead an otherwise uncertain team to victory by providing an impenetrable defense that will weaken the confidence and stability of the opposing team, and allow the goaltender’s teammates to focus on scoring against their opponents.
On the other hand, a subpar goalie can easily tank a team’s chances of winning an event. When the goalie is not up to snuff, this means the rest of the team must have a more defensive approach to playing. All of this can lead to the team either failing to earn enough goals against the other players, or not being able to prevent enemy players from scoring.
With all of this in mind, you should always make sure to research the goaltenders of a match as much as possible before a game starts, and take their performance and condition into consideration when you are contemplating which bets to make.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, there are many ways to become a successful NHL punter. One such factor is being efficient with managing your bankroll, and progressive betting systems can help you with this aspect of NHL betting. Positive progression systems, in particular, such as the Paroli and the Reverse Labouchere, are a great option that will keep your losses in check.
In addition, you can not go wrong with the tried-and-true flat betting system if you want something that is both useful and very simple. You could also use your betting skills and ability to analyze game data and decide when you should fade the public, for instance, or when you could go for the Zig-Zag strategy. Last but not least, if you wish to become a professional, you can try arbing, value betting, or matched betting, provided you have the bank and time to use the strategies properly. Either way, NHL betting systems have something to offer to every punter.