Making use of a betting system that generates consistent, long-term profits from tennis betting should be considered a priority by every punter who takes this occupation seriously. Arbitrage Betting on tennis matches is a widely popular approach utilized by many tennis punters.
The fundamental idea of Arbitrage Betting is a straightforward one. It involves placing bets on the two possible outcomes of a tennis match at two different operators. Thus, punters cover all the bases utilizing variations of odds between operators, as well as proper calculation of the distribution of their stakes across the two bookies.
Guaranteed profits from sports betting might sound too wonderful to be true, but the system is indeed a real one if implemented properly. Besides knowing the specifics of the sport and applying a sound bankroll management policy, punters should also be familiar with the mathematical calculations that need to be done to apply the system correctly.
Spotting when Arbitrage Betting opportunities arise and taking advantage of them in a timely and accurate manner is an essential ability, which Arbitrage bettors need to master. Given they can make the most of the circumstances at hand, they will be able to profit from tennis betting consistently. However, this system is not entirely void of flaws, so we will try to cover all its features, both positive and negative.
The current publication aims to review the specifics of Arbitrage Betting when applied to tennis matches, the way it works, the calculations to be done, as well as the associated risks. We will take you step-by-step along the main concepts needed to grasp the essence of Arbitrage Betting.
The Way Bookies Generate Profits
Before we look deeper into the way bookies generate profits, we should clearly define the concept of arbitrage. In the context of foreign exchange investments, the concept known as arbitrage allows traders to lock in profits by purchasing a security in one market and simultaneously selling it in another market at a higher cost. The difference in prices of the same asset is what allows traders to generate profits. As in sports betting, arbitrage trading is considered a low-risk activity.
Now that we have clarified the basic idea of an arbitrage opportunity, we may go on to elaborate on the way bookies set their lines and generate their profits. It is no secret to anyone that sportsbooks apply particular methods to ensure they generate a profit from every single line they are offering. Arbitrage betting is one of the systems used to overcome the advantage bookies hold over punters.
The inclusion of a built-in margin is the main procedure bookies utilize to always win. It is also known as vigorish, juice, or overround. It is built into every single line they offer and exactly due to this, punters cannot cover both possible outcomes of tennis matches at a single bookmaker.
Another aspect of odds-making is the way operators compile their odds. The compilation of odds is actually the pricing of the markets. The odds should reflect the probability of sports outcomes as accurately as possible, and also contain a built-in profit.
The precise setting of odds is largely dependent on figuring out statistical data, as well as related sports news. Furthermore, yet another important step along the way involves considering factors such as the current form of players, their playing styles and preferences for the playing surface, and their results from recent meetings, to mention a few.
As many punters probably know, realizing the link between odds and the implied probability they suggest is a crucial one. The lower the odds are, the higher the implied probability they suggest is. And conversely, the higher the odds are, the lower the implied probability of a particular outcome is.
To figure out the implied probability of the odds of a particular outcome, bettors should take 1 and divide it by the odds. To convert the result into percentages, they should multiply it by 100.
Creating a balanced book is yet another target that odds-compilers are charged with. This means that, ideally, they should ensure roughly the same profits regardless of the outcome of the tennis match. In case the book is unbalanced, odds tend to fluctuate. Arbitrage bettors should be able to spot such markets, which are overpriced and do not reflect the true probability of outcomes. Although bookies aim to achieve balanced markets, this could be rarely implemented perfectly, and ultimately, their goal is to be as close as possible.
With that being said, it is worth noting that punters should make a clear distinction between sharp bookmakers and soft bookmakers. Sharp bookies tend to offer odds that are as close to the real probability of outcomes as possible and are characterized by quick reaction times to changing circumstances and factors impacting the game. Soft bookies, on the other hand, tend to offer more attractive odds and adjust them more slowly. Both types of bookmakers generate profits, although their marketing strategies differ.
As already pointed out, an Arbitrage Betting opportunity arises when punters spot different but sufficiently high odds on both outcomes of a tennis match. This is realized by knowing who the sharp and soft bookies are, and therefore Arbitrage bettors need them both.
Example of Arbitrage Betting on Tennis
Tennis is perfectly suited for Arbitrage Betting, as matches have only two possible outcomes – either a Player A win or a Player B win. Unlike football, the draw is not a possible outcome. Placing an Arbitrage bet with a single bookie is not possible due to the built-in margin, which we already mentioned in the previous section.
To illustrate this, let us assume there was a forthcoming match between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, where a bookmaker considers the opponents as equally matched.
Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal
By placing a €100 stake at odds of 1.85, bettors would generate a total return of €185, including the initial stake. So, by placing a €100 stake on both possible outcomes at a single bookmaker (Bookmaker 1), punters stake a total of €200 to generate a profit of €170 and thus suffer a loss of €30. What Arbitrage bettors are supposed to do is find suitable opportunities to bet on both outcomes at different operators, and thus guarantee their profits no matter what the outcome of a tennis match is.
Let us now see what opportunities we have if we consider the same tennis match and the related odds offered by another bookmaker (Bookmaker 2). They may have a rather different view on the outcome of the forthcoming match based on a different assessment of the various factors impacting the game.
Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal
In such a situation, we may state that we have managed to spot an arbitrage betting opportunity. Punters can make guaranteed profits by betting on the best odds available for both players. This would mean betting on Roger Federer at odds of 1.85, offered by Bookmaker 1, and betting on Rafael Nadal at odds of 2.25, offered by Bookmaker 2.
Punters may use an Arbitrage betting calculator to figure out the proportional distribution of a €200 stake over the two bookies. Later, we will demonstrate how the manual calculations are done.
|Odds||Total Stake||Stake||Payouts||Total Payout||Total Profit|
|Odds of Bet 1 (Roger Federer 1.85)||€200||Bet 1 – €109.76||Bet 1 – €203.05||€203.05||€3.05|
|Odds of Bet 2 (Rafael Nadal 2.25)||Bet 2 – €90.24||Bet 2 – 203.05||€3.05|
As bettors can see, they can generate a small sure profit (€3.05) no matter who wins the match, provided they have correctly calculated the balanced distribution of their total stake across the two bookmakers.
Why Are Arbs Possible and How to Identify Them?
We ultimately see that the variations in prices across different bookmakers are predominantly due to two main reasons. The first one is due to the different factors bookmakers consider to shape their view of a particular market. And the second one is linked to the ensuing odds adjustments that bookies perform to achieve a balanced book. Bookies tend to adjust their prices either slowly or quickly, and hence, they offer different prices.
Those bettors who are new to Arbitrage Betting on tennis may be wondering how to find and take advantage of such an opportunity. Using specialized websites and forums for this purpose is a viable option, although bettors should be aware that Arbitrage betting opportunities may quickly disappear, i.e. odds are very likely to be correctly adjusted.
There are also various Arbitrage betting software products available on the market, both free and paid. And, as the last option, we may mention the manual search for Arbitrage bets. Odds-comparing websites may be helpful for this purpose.
Arbitrage Betting Calculations
Besides using the Arbitrage Betting calculators available online, bettors should also be able to do the mathematical computations by themselves. Below, we are going to describe the formulas needed to figure out an Arbitrage bet correctly and guarantee a profit irrespective of the outcome of tennis matches.
Is an Arbitrage bet worth placing?
Punters should note that this calculation uses the Decimal odds format. To determine if an Arb exists, punters should first find the best odds for both outcomes of a tennis match. What they are supposed to do next is figure out the Individual Arbitrage Percentage of each bet. This is done by taking 1 and dividing it by the Decimal odds offered. The result should be multiplied by 100. If we get back to our example, the match between Federer and Nadal, we may calculate the Individual Arbitrage Percentage of both bets.
Individual Arbitrage Percentage for Roger Federer = (1 / 1.85) * 100 = 54.05%
Individual Arbitrage Percentage for Rafael Nadal = (1 / 2.25) * 100 = 44.44%
The two Individual Arbitrage Percentages should then be summed up, receiving the Total Arbitrage Percentage, or 98.49%. Anything that is below 100% is considered a suitable Arbitrage betting opportunity. The smaller the percentage is, the greater the potential profit would be.
How to distribute stakes across the two bookmakers?
Now that we have identified our Arbitrage betting opportunity, we should figure out the proportional distribution of the total stake across the two operators. This is necessary to ensure we will generate the same profit no matter what the outcome of the tennis match is. To do this, we should multiply our total investment (the total amount of the stake at both bookmakers we are willing to make) by the Individual Arbitrage Percentage, and then divide the result by the Total Arbitrage Percentage.
The Stake for Roger Federer = (€200 * 54.05%) / 98.49% = €109.76
The Stake for Rafael Nadal = (€200 * 44.44% / 98.49% = €90.24Thus, bettors ensure generating the same profits for both outcomes, by calculating their stakes proportionately to the offered odds.
|Bet 1 – €109.76||1.85||€203.05|
|Bet 2 – €90.24||2.25||€203.05|
How to calculate profits?
Finally, bettors should be able to calculate their expected profit. This is done by using the following formula:
Expected Profit = (Total Investment / Total Arbitrage Percentage) – Total Investment
Expected Profit = (€200 / 98.49%) – €200 = €3.05
Pros and Cons of Arbitrage Betting
Undeniably, the biggest advantage of Arbitrage Betting is that it is a low-risk system, allowing the opportunity to generate guaranteed profits. Some even do not consider it gambling due to the lack of risk. It is not complex at all, provided that bettors comprehend its basic principles and the associated mathematical calculations.
However, the system is not entirely free of faults. Finding profitable arbs is not that easy, and due to the constant odds adjustments that bookmakers are making, Arb opportunities might not last for long. Furthermore, most arbs generate a profit varying between 1% and 3% from the initial investment, thus necessitating a more substantial betting bankroll.
As we have already mentioned, Arbitrage betting requires opening accounts with multiple bookmakers. These accounts need to be active and funded, so bettors may quickly take advantage of the Arb opportunities when they arise.
The possible miscalculations done by bettors are also to be figured out when considering if Arbitrage Betting is the right betting system for them. These mistakes might cause some substantial losses, so bettors are strongly advised to double-check them.
And last but not least, we should also point out the risk of account limiting, suspension, or bet cancellation. Most bookmakers do not tolerate Arbitrage Betting, and they tend to limit or close accounts if they detect evidence of such bets.
When all is said and done, punters are advised to bet only the money they can afford to lose. Although considered by many as a risk-free betting system, Arbitrage Betting has its specific shortcomings. It is beyond doubt that the system can be exceptionally profitable in the long run, as long as bettors take advantage of suitable opportunities and make their calculations precisely. Technically, Arbitrage Betting can be applied to any sport, but tennis is perfectly suited for this system, as the possible outcomes of a match are only two. With so many competitions throughout the year, tennis bettors are guaranteed to find and enjoy a lot of suitable Arb opportunities.