There is no more significant league in the US than the NFL, and therefore, the audiences and betting action it attracts continue to rocket. All the more so after the number of states where wagering on sports over the Internet is made legal continues to grow.
Understanding everything involved in the NFL and wagering on the league is indeed challenging and time-consuming, and punters should remember that the only way to guarantee themselves long-term success is to acquire as much knowledge and advice as they can.
Uncovering NFL trends can undoubtedly put gambling enthusiasts at an advantage while placing their bets. Yet, betting and handicapping NFL games is not at the least a walk in the park, and no matter if punters are looking to tail or fade the public, there are a number of metrics they should inspect before they dive into making real-money bets.
The Ins and Outs of NFL Betting Trends
There is tons of information about how to use trends and patterns while wagering on the NFL, and while some betting experts advise against employing them, others consider that they should be an inseparable part of the betting strategy of every gambling buff.
Punters should not be left thinking that while wagering on the NFL, they should base their decisions exclusively on betting trends either. It is just the other way around as they should use them along with the other information they have already managed to collect. Before they dive into wagering on the NFL, gambling enthusiasts should know that not all trends are worth considering as they will not necessarily offer value. This is the case with trends that are too general or inapplicable.
In simple terms, NFL trends will show punters how teams are most likely to perform under certain circumstances. Thus, trends might have to do with the way a team performs in the preseason games or how teams do against the spread, for example.
One of the things punters should keep in mind about betting trends is that such can be found in almost all aspects of the matches but as we explained earlier, finding trends that will potentially offer value is an arduous task. In order to recognize them easily, gambling enthusiasts should know that the three main types of trends are betting, technical, and situational.
NFL Betting Trends
No matter if punters are keen on betting on the NFL, MLB, NBA, or any other league or sport, they should know that betting trends are the most chosen way to use trends and patterns. What gambling aficionados should remember is that above all, using NFL betting trends involves studying statistics and odds.
The name of betting trends is pretty much self-explanatory as they have to do with the wagers the NFL betting sites have accepted on one of the games. Even though some punters might consider that this information will be of little or no use while making their picks, betting trends will help them keep up with the opinion of other bettors on how the game is most likely to play out.
In spite of the fact that using this approach makes perfect sense, gambling enthusiasts need to know that it is not a guaranteed fail-safe way to win each time when they wager on the NFL. Considering the greater accuracy with which bookmakers introduce prices, coming across bets that offer value simply by making stakes against the public will not invariably do the trick.
Instead, a far more effective approach will be if gambling enthusiasts are always on the lookout for significant line movements that are created by the greater bet volume one of the sides takes in, and when such opportunities arise, betting the other way will be their best bet.
Naturally, finding such betting opportunities does not happen every day, and punters will need to invest much time and effort to detect such. That being said, the point spread and the odds on the favorite can undoubtedly be used as an indication of the public view.
Using betting trends is possible no matter if punters prefer to make pre-game bets or they enjoy making bets when the games are already in progress. No matter the case, while placing their bets, punters should have several variables in the back of their minds. In order to make sure that the trend they have found is not irrelevant, gambling enthusiasts should pay close attention to the sample size, as well as how long it has been in effect.
In order to make sure that the trend punters have detected offers value, the most important thing they need to do is to ensure that the sample size is large enough. In other words, punters should not focus exclusively on the past game or two as they will be much more likely to find a trend if they examine the past ten or even 20 games, for example.
An example of a betting trend will be the way a team has closed the previous season. Let’s assume that the chosen team is the Los Angeles Rams and punters want to find out how they have closed the previous seasons.
Long-term trends are indeed what NFL bettors tend to pay more attention to, but they should easily not underrate the significance of the short-term ones. Because of the considerably smaller sample size, some punters consider that short-term trends are deceptive and are unlikely to bring good results.
This should not necessarily be the case as, oftentimes when large samples are yet to be formed, streaks can be used as an early indicator of trends. Using short-term trends can undoubtedly help NFL bettors beat bookmakers to the first punch as, on most occasions, oddsmakers are less likely to pay them enough attention.
Situational NFL Trends
When it comes to trends that are determined by specific circumstances, these are known as situational trends or situational handicapping. These NFL trends go beyond numbers, which is to say that things like statistics and line movements will be left outside the equation. Instead, situational trends have more to do with a range of events that, on most occasions, are specific to the sport punters have decided to bet on.
In order to find situational trends, NFL bettors should spend more time examining past results of the team they are about to place a bet on to attempt to find patterns and, if they achieve this, they should understand the circumstances under which these recurring situations take place.
If punters want to take advantage of situational trends, they should collect information about the way the team performs when playing in its stadium and when it is away. Punters should also look at the available data to determine what impact big wins and losses have on the team’s performance, as well as whether traveling long distances has an impact on the way they play. When back-to-back games away from the team’s city are concerned, this might have a negative influence on their performance, and if this is usually the case with the team, the best thing gambling enthusiasts can do is to place a bet against it.
Another thing sports bettors should pay close attention to is how well the team performs when playing a weaker and a stronger opponent in its stadium. Other factors that can determine situational trends include the weather, as well as the time when games take place.
In spite of the fact that the data for previous games can be quite useful when punters are making their picks, they should keep in mind that this information will not invariably help them figure out what will happen in the game they are about to bet on. In other words, the fact that, for the most part, a team has performed well against strong opponents while playing in its stadium does not necessarily mean that the team is bound to win again or unfalteringly.
Technical NFL Trends
Technical trends have a lot in common with situational ones, but the former type has far more advanced applications. Using technical trends requires even more effort and time, as gambling enthusiasts will need to go beyond the current game and examine stats even closer. Fortunately for punters who want to use such trends, they will not be required to spend hours upon hours analyzing such information as most of the time, this data is readily available on the Internet, which makes things a lot easier.
While employing such trends, punters will not focus on the performance of one of the players in its entirety, and, instead, the performance will be measured using his winning percentage. In this way, the similarities and differences will be evaluated across teams.
NFL Team Trends Explained
As we explained already, NFL betting trends have to do with the volume of wagers the two sides in a wager take in, which is to say that they provide an insight into the public opinion of how the game will play out.
Where public money is directed is not the only metric NFL bettors should consider when they are on the lookout for valuable betting opportunities. If they want to make the most out of their betting session, team trends might help punters come by the coveted payouts. It goes without saying that gambling enthusiasts will stand a better chance to predict the outcome of the game they are about to place a bet on if they look at its performances and hopefully detect certain patterns.
So, what team betting trends are all about? Simply put, team betting trends evaluate the performance of teams and determine how it relates to betting outcomes. In order to figure this out, NFL bettors should merely ask themselves how much money they would have collected if they had consistently bet on their chosen team to become an outright winner or how many times they would have collected a payout if they have placed bets that the team will cover the spread, for example, provided that certain conditions are met.
Team betting trends can be exceptionally useful, and some of the conditions punters can take into account prior to placing their bets are the bet type they have chosen, the odds, as well as the location of the match. In other words, gambling enthusiasts should consider whether the team they are about to place a bet on is a favorite or underdog and whether they are playing in their stadium or they are away. Lastly, punters should pay attention to the wager type they are about to pick, more specifically, whether they are placing moneyline, point spread, or over/under, for example.
|Moneyline||Against the spread||Over/under|
It is up to punters to determine which factors they prefer to pay attention to and which ones they want to ignore. Depending on the bet gambling enthusiasts want to make, they might wish to add additional metrics like the way the team does against the spread or how the team performs after bye weeks.
How the Team Performs during the First Half
One more metric NFL bettors might want to use is the way the team performs during the first half of the game for the simple reason that this is when they are most likely to go out of their way to gain the upper hand. Thus, if the team starts the game on the right foot, they will have the freedom to decide how they want to play further in the game and vice versa.
If the team does not perform that well during the first half of the game, they will give their best to return in the game, which will make them more likely to fall short. In other words, what NFL bettors should look at is the scoring record of teams during the first half in order to determine whether they tend to score more or less. In this way, gambling enthusiasts will be able to determine how the scoring records of the two teams measure up against each other.
As we explained already, the betting action bookmakers take in on certain markets is one of the main causes of line movements. It goes without saying that punters will not always be able to figure out where the money goes with ease because the odds are adjusted all the time. Punters should pay close attention to considerable line movements that appear almost immediately after the opening lines are introduced because this is when seasoned NFL bettors are most likely to step in. The same might also apply to the occasions when a movement away from key point spread numbers is observed.
Why the Line Shifts
While looking for considerable line shifts, NFL bettors should bear in mind that the causes for these movements might not necessarily be the betting action the market attracts as recent news also lead to such changes. If punters do not manage to find a rhyme or reason for the change, it might be better if they do not fade the public.
No matter the case, NFL bettors should always make sure that the decisions they make are data-driven and well-informed.
Is Betting Against the Public Profitable
As punters might already know, betting tends to move strongly in one direction, and on most occasions, this happens when one of the sides of the bet gets significantly higher action, and the balance needs to be restored. Such would be the case when bookmakers introduce the odds, and the public decides that one of the sides offers better value. Other factors that can have an impact on the line include injuries, suspensions, and the weather, to name a few. Of course, it is not excluded to see almost evenly-matched games, in which cases, no significant line changes will be observed.
While betting on the NFL, many punters prefer to stick to the so-called contrarian method, which is to say that they simply weigh the betting action each side takes in and go for the less preferred side. Gambling enthusiasts prefer this approach because they believe that public opinion can be easily affected by the information, which is introduced prior to the game. Thus, in cases of one-sided betting action, some seasoned punters will make smart bets by taking the opposite side.
It makes perfect sense that the share of losing stakes should be larger than the number of winning ones for the simple reason that if bookmakers are required to offer payouts for too many bets, they would not be able to stay in business at all. Thus, while examining NFL betting trends, punters should keep in mind that, oftentimes, bookmakers make one of the sides more appealing than it actually is in order to guarantee that the betting action the market attracts will not be lopsided.
An important thing gambling enthusiasts should know is that many NFL bettors are mainly avid fans and they dive into wagering on the league because they think that they have a thorough understanding of the sport or the performance of their favorite team. On most occasions, these fans tend to focus their attention on games that have high-scoring potential and, above all, on games in which big favorites are playing.
When this is the case, if punters pick the over/under market, they might see how the bookmaker shades the over. In the event that they want to go for point spread betting, gambling enthusiasts are most likely to notice that the spread is moved against the favorite. If the betting market is particularly popular among punters, those who have chosen to bet against the public might be even more likely to find valuable betting opportunities.
In view of this, sometimes, placing bets on large underdogs might be a smart move as punters might be in for handsome payouts. The same also applies to the occasions when the betting action becomes one-sided, as figures show that in the majority of the cases, punters who have followed the public opinion have lost the staked amounts.
When wagering on professional football, gambling aficionados should not allow the public to sway them too much simply because there is a strength beyond the numbers. Punters should keep in mind that bookmakers invariably strive to keep the market balanced, meaning that betting trends are normally available for a limited time.
In addition to this, gambling enthusiasts should also be prepared to see outcomes that go against trends. This is to say that NFL trends should not be the only factor that should determine punters’ picks, and they should focus more heavily on them when they are going back and forth between their decisions.
How to Use NFL Betting Trends
There are certain situations gambling enthusiasts should be on the lookout for while the NFL season runs, and some of the things they should take into account include how the team does when it is considered a favorite and underdog, the ATS, as well as whether its performance is better at home than on the road.
- First and foremost, punters should ask themselves why one of the teams is considered stronger than the other. The best thing they can do in order to answer this question is to look at injury reports or any other news about events that might affect the team’s performance.
- Punters might also want to use betting trends when the team they want to have a flutter on has won two divisional games in a row. Of course, punters should not be left thinking that the team is bound to win every divisional game but they should at least consider the opportunity of seeing the team triumph again.
- When punters want to be sure that they will be more likely to make correct picks, they should invest some time to understand why money flows in a particular way. Once they have done this, they should decide whether they agree with the public sentiment or they think the game will play out another way, and then proceed with their bets.
- NFL betting strategies can undoubtedly be a very useful tool punters can employ as part of their betting strategy, but trends will only do the trick if they learn how to recognize the real ones from the short-term or irrelevant ones, which does not happen overnight.