The NFL has immensely gained in popularity, not only in terms of viewership, but when it comes to the betting action it attracts as well. More and more people now enjoy the thrill of wagering on American football because of the plentiful betting opportunities this sport offers, which explains why it is now an integral part of the portfolios of most betting platforms.
Many gambling enthusiasts choose to have a flutter on the NFL because of the various types of wagers they can choose from, and picking the right bet type in the best circumstances can bring them some truly juicy payouts. Consistently placing totals, parlays, futures, or point spreads, for example, is an approach many NFL bettors prefer over diversifying their betting session, which is an approach that might prevent them from achieving their goals.
Moneyline bets are, indeed, among the betting markets NFL fans should not leave out of consideration if they want to ensure that they will get more bang for their buck. It can safely be said that it has become the most chosen betting market not only by fans of American football but by fans of other sports as well because of its straightforwardness and wide availability. Read ahead to learn more about NFL moneylines, whether they are worthwhile, and what to consider when making such bets.
What Are NFL Moneyline Bets
While placing bets on the NFL, punters can decide if they want to make wagers that cover just one game or they prefer to make multi-game bets. Moneyline bets are without a doubt among the most chosen bet types, and they are overwhelmingly popular among beginner NFL bettors because of their simplicity and professional punters because of the handsome payouts they stand the chance to cash in.
Moneyline bets are all about picking the team or player that will become an outright winner of a game or a competition. It is as simple as that, as punters should not concern themselves with the number of points the team has won the game by, how the team has notched up, or how long it took it to win the game. In simple terms, all that matters to such bets is that the team gambling enthusiasts have chosen ultimately wins the game. An important thing gambling aficionados should keep in mind is that moneyline bets include overtime.
- Punters’ moneyline bets will be graded as winning ones if the team they have backed wins the game, and will be graded as losing ones if it does not outperform its opponent. Normally, in case of a tie, the staked amount is returned to punters.
Depending on how the two contending teams match up, bookmakers will introduce odds punters should use in order to figure out which team is in all likelihood to win the game and which one is expected to lose it.
As likely as not, NFL bettors might have already noticed that when the moneyline market is introduced, the odds of the contending teams have a positive and a negative sign on the occasions when the American odds format is selected. Thus, the team with the negative number is the favorite, while the team with the positive number is the underdog.
Let’s provide as an example a game between Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts
|Detroit Lions||Indianapolis Colts|
In this scenario, Indianapolis Colts are odds-on to win the game, and the negative sign shows this. The positive sign, which stands before the odds of the Detroit Lions, indicates that the team is the underdog in the game.
Gaining a full understanding of what odds are telling is of crucial importance as this information will help NFL bettors work out the potential payout their moneyline bets will bring them. Naturally, the potential returns punters will stand the chance to collect will vary according to the side they decide to place their bets on. In other words, NFL bettors will be in for more considerable payouts when they make correct picks on the underdog, but they should not base their betting decisions exclusively on the juicer payouts they might get as the risk will be higher as well.
Thus, in order for punters to make the most out of their real-money bets, they should make sure that they are selective when placing NFL moneylines.
Thus, if punters stake $100 on the Lions to win the match, they will collect a payout of $250, which contains their original stake and their profit of $150. In the event that punters want to place a bet on the underdog, staking $100 can bring them a payout of $180.
It is worth mentioning that the lion’s share of NFL betting sites introduces the lines using the American odds format, according to which the negative sign shows the amount gambling aficionados will collect for every $100 they put at stake, while the positive sign shows what amount they are required to put at a stake to potentially get $100.
If this looks too confusing for gambling aficionados, they might find it easier to wrap their heads around moneyline bets if they switch to decimal odds display.
When Should Punters Place NFL Moneyline Bets
In spite of the benefits of placing moneyline bets and their simplicity, many NFL bettors still wonder whether picking the outright winner of the game is a better choice than betting the point spread. Every experienced punter will tell you that there is no right and wrong answer to this question as each bet type has its strengths and should be used in the right circumstances.
When NFL bettors go for moneyline wagers, it will be significantly easier for them to manage the risk versus reward ratio, which is not possible with other bets they can go for. Although this is the main reason why gambling aficionados prefer to stick to this bet type, they should be aware that, on certain occasions, making such a bet is indeed a smarter choice. The opposite is also true as there are NFL games for which betting the point spread might bring better results.
To put it another way, fans of American football are advised to pick the bet type they think can bring them value under the current circumstances. In some cases, placing both bet types at the same time might also bring punters the payouts they are chasing.
The only occasion when NFL bettors should consider placing a moneyline bet rather than betting the point spread is when they see that the match is expected to be decided within three points. In fact, the NFL games that are decided within such a small number of points are not at the least many, and if punters come across such, it will be up to them to decide whether they will bet on the underdog to win the match outright or they will rather bet the point spread. It is worth mentioning, however, that if gambling enthusiasts place a moneyline bet on the underdog and their pick is a correct one, the payout they will get will be more mouth-watering when compared to point spread betting.
|New Orleans Saints||-3||-110|
Let’s provide as an example a match between the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings. In our example, the Minnesota Vikings are a three-point underdog, and as gambling aficionados can see, the odds for both teams are -110. If we assume that punters decide to make a moneyline bet of $110 at odds of -110, they can potentially collect $210 if the underdog wins.
Not only is the potential payout bigger, but the chances to make a correct pick with your moneyline bet are also greater. In such cases, punters will be less likely to make a correct pick with point spread bets on the underdog as the team might not manage to cover the spread, lose the game by more points than the spread, or even win the game.
Is There a Difference between Betting on the Favorite and the Underdog
In most NFL games, one of the teams is a favorite, while the other one is an underdog, and as punters might already know, bookmakers introduce point spreads in order to create an even-money proposition. Thus, the favorite needs to win the game by more points by the spread, while the underdog should not lose the game by more points than the spread. The smaller the difference in the quality of the two teams is, the smaller the point spread will be and vice versa, the bigger the difference in their performance is, the bigger the point spread will be.
As we explained already, no point spread is used in moneyline bets, and the odds are therefore adjusted to reflect this. With point spread bets, both sides have odds of around -110 or are close to the same, but this is rarely the case with moneyline bets.
While betting on the NFL, it might happen to see games that are so closely matched that bookmakers do not introduce a clear favorite. In such cases, punters will see that the difference in the moneyline odds is almost negligible, and the best thing they can do in such cases is to go for line shopping.
No matter how close bookmakers might think that two teams are, NFL bettors should invariably attempt to find an edge. In other words, gambling enthusiasts should not overlook games that might be too close to call as they might bring some good betting opportunities.
|Kansas City Chiefs||Tampa Bay Buccaneers|
As punters can see from this example, none of the teams is an obvious winner, and because the bookmaker considers that they have almost equal chances of winning, none of the teams has a positive sign before their odds. Additionally, the difference in the potential returns is rather small, but this is not to say that gambling aficionados should not bet on such games or they should simply trust their gut while picking the team to wager on.
When the team NFL bettors want to bet on is a big favorite, the payout they will potentially collect will be smaller. When it comes to betting on big underdogs, the potential returns will be considerably higher. Yet, American football fans should not neglect the role risk plays, as when placing bets on big underdogs, they will run a greater risk. When betting on big favorites, on the other hand, the risk they will need to take will not be that considerable, but the potential payout will be smaller as well.
Are NFL Moneyline Bets Profitable
Placing NFL moneyline bets has lots of benefits, and as we said earlier, one of the main reasons why they are so frequently used is that it takes no time at all to figure out how such bets work. The secret to consistently winning while betting on the NFL or any other sport or competition is not placing complex bets punters do not even fully understand. Instead, in order for gambling enthusiasts to guarantee that they will enjoy long-term success, it will be better if they learn how to find value and pick winners with greater accuracy.
Of course, NFL bettors should not simply take a look at the moneyline market and try to predict which team is more likely to win, as they should also consider whether the payout they might potentially get will be worthwhile.
While speaking about value, the easiest way for NFL bettors to find such is by taking a look at the moneylines. Punters will be more likely to properly assess value because they will be able to make the needed calculations in a walk. As punters might already know, in order to determine whether a wager they are about to make is worthwhile, they should first calculate implied probability. Then, punters need to compare this value with the probability of the possible outcomes using the odds bookmakers have introduced.
Moneyline bets are also the best option for total NFL novices simply because they will not be overwhelmed by a great range of options and the slew of decisions they need to make, which might be the case with other betting opportunities.
NFL bettors might already be aware that the very first set of odds bookmakers introduce for an event or game are also known as opening lines. In essence, they provide the first opportunity for gambling enthusiasts to see how linemakers think the game is most likely to play out.
Depending on the way the betting public reacts to these odds, and more specifically, depending on the betting action the bookmaker takes in on that particular market, the lines might shift in one direction or another. In other words, if too many punters bet on the favorite, the bookmaker will instantly increase the odds of the underdog in order to restore the balance in the betting market by attracting betting action on the other side as well.
NFL bettors should keep in mind that the betting action each side takes in might not be the only reason why line movements can be observed. Such shifts might be brought about by information, which comes out after the opening lines are already introduced, and this is exactly the case with injury reports. Suspensions, changes in conditions, and big hitters are only some of the other reasons why the line might move.
Considering that such changes might happen all the time, it will be best if NFL bettors compare the opening odds with the current prices, as the opinion of other punters might help them make smarter choices.
Tips for Placing NFL Moneyline Bets
Once NFL bettors have a good understanding of the way moneyline bets work, they should pay attention to several tips that might be of use during their betting session. First and foremost, gambling enthusiasts should learn how to analyze the performance of the teams in order to assess their chances to win the game they are about to bet on and compare them with the odds bookmakers have introduced. In spite of the fact that punters will not be able to acquire and improve their handicapping skills overnight, this knowledge is undoubtedly the key to more fruitful results.
Not being selective is a mistake not only inexperienced punters make but seasoned ones as well. Because of the limited choice of games the NFL offers, when compared to other leagues and sports, many gambling enthusiasts think that they should not miss a betting opportunity and place bets on every game. One of the most essential things punters should learn is that picking and choosing the games and the markets is where success lies.
No matter whether punters are only keen on betting on the NFL or they prefer to wager on other sports as well, they should always make certain that they get the most advantageous prices. Shopping around for the best prices is a must for punters, no matter if they intend to place a moneyline or any other bet type, as thus, they will be less likely to miss out on some good betting opportunities.
Line movements should not remain under the radar of NFL bettors as well, and what makes successful bettors stand out from the crowd is that they know the causes for these movements, as well as the direction in which the lines might shift. This is exceptionally important when placing moneyline bets, as odds can move quite a bit in both directions, which is not always the case with other betting markets.
Lastly, NFL bettors should proceed cautiously to games in which big favorites are playing. What they should consider is whether risking their money to potentially get a less healthy payout is a worthwhile option. Punters might still be potentially in for a profit, but there might be much more valuable opportunities they overlook while placing bets on games in which big favorites are playing.