Undoubtedly, predicting the correct score of football matches is one of the most challenging bet markets, and therefore, quite rewarding one, as long as our selections are precise. In the current article, we will delve into the Correct Score bet market and also shed light on some betting tips and calculations.

As its name implies, the Correct Score bet market is about making an accurate guess regarding the final score of a football event. You may be wondering what the best approach to this kind of betting is. We will try to explain it by delivering proper examples, so bettors can make consistent profits out of Correct Score bet markets.

Generally, Correct Score bets include the regular 90 minutes of each football match plus injury time. Interactive sportsbooks offer a range of odds on some of the probable scores in a football match, and bettors are supposed to select the most likely outcome.

Ultimately, if your selection matches the final score, your bet is a winner. While getting this right may seem like a daunting task, the prices of online bookies are definitely worth your time and effort.

Odds of Correct Score Bet Markets

To get a better idea of how this betting market looks, punters may check the table below, where we can see the odds offered for some of the probable scores for a clash between Manchester United and Atletico Madrid from the UEFA Champions Legaue.

UEFA Champions League
Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid

Interactive sportsbooks typically offer more variations of the final score along with the relevant odds, adjusted accordingly.

Step by Step Guide

Although a Correct Score wager is a self-explanatory one, many punters are wary of placing it. As indicated by the table in the previous section, Correct Score markets have high odds and offer considerable rewards. Mastering this wager type may not be a walk in the park but once gotten right, the rewards are worth the efforts.

By making use of a mathematical approach, called the Poisson Distribution, we can achieve considerable success in making precise Correct Score bets. Bettors can follow the below steps to increase the chances of making a winning Correct Score prediction.

  1. Firstly, you should select a league you are familiar with more or less, and then decide which of both teams has a higher chance of winning the match you are interested in. For this purpose, you can make use of the available statistics and existing home and away records to get a proper idea of the teams’ scoring patterns. Checking the odds of bookmakers for both teams is yet another indicator showing the favorite and the underdog.
  2. Secondly, you should calculate the Attack Strength of both teams. The Attack Strength represents the team’s productivity in respect of goals scored. This calculation is an easy task to accomplish. To do so, you should first check the average number of home and away goals that were scored for the whole league you are interested in. All that bettors are supposed to do is divide the total number of goals by the games played. It is harder to make accurate predictions at the start of seasons when the available data is still insufficient.
    • Total goals scored at home for the season / total number of games played
      So if there were a total of 600 home goals for a total of 400 league games, the average number of goals scored at home would equal 1.5 (600/400).
    • Total goals scored away for the season / total number of games played
      So if there were a total of 450 away goals for a total of 400 league games, the average number of goals scored away would equal 1.12 (450/400).
    • To calculate the Attack Strength of any team from the league, bettors should divide the team’s average number of goals by the league’s average.
  3. It is important to take into consideration that the average values we are interested in concern not only the team we are intent on backing but also the opponent. So, the next step in the process involves calculating the Defense Strength of both teams. It denotes the tendency to concede goals. To obtain the average league values for the calculation of the Defense Strength, we should simply invert the figures we got above, as the number of goals scored by a home team equals the number of goals conceded by the away team. Similarly, the Defense Strength of any team from the league is calculated by dividing the team’s average by the league’s average.
  4. Once we have figured out the Attack Strength and the Defense Strength, we can calculate the likely number of goals that both teams will score, or the goal expectancy.
    To compute the home team’s goal expectancy, we should multiply its Attack Strength by the away team’s Defense Strength and the league’s average number of home goals.Home Team Goal Expectancy = Home Team’s Attack Strength x Away Team’s Defense Strength x Average Number of Home Goals in the leagueTo estimate the number of goals that the away team might score, we should multiply its Attack Strength by the Defense Strength of the home team and the average number of Away goals.
    Away Team Goal Expectancy = Away Team’s Attack Strength x Home Team’s Defense Strength x Average Number of Away Goals in the league
  5. Since matches’ scores are represented in whole numbers, we need to convert our average values into actual percentages for goals for both teams. The final step of the process involves converting the received values into a correct score prediction by using the Poisson distribution formula: P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!.
    In the above formula, e is a constant value equal to 2.71828, μ represents the league’s Attack Strength, x denotes both teams’ total Attack Strength for home and away games, and P(x; μ) marks the Poisson probability.

    Another solution would be to find an Online Poisson Distribution Calculator to do the math for us. Some online calculators require populating the Home Team Goal Expectancy and the Away Team Goal Expectancy and show the probability of different Correct Scores expressed in percentages and decimal odds.

Final Word

Whether you are an experienced punter or a recreational bettor, chances are you have already tried the Correct Score betting markets and are aware of the fact that they may be quite tricky.

As we can see, the Correct Score betting markets involve due analysis and mathematical calculations rather than luck if we take into consideration consistent profits. Bettors should not forget that those calculations are based on probability and there is not a guarantee of always getting your wagers correct.

The described mathematical model typically relies on past results and does not take into consideration important factors such as current absences, injuries, the weather, and so on. So, other than the mathematical formulas, bettors should always rely on the available statistical information regarding the relevant league and the important factors impacting football matches.

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