Besides match result markets, Over/Under betting is another much-liked alternative available to football punters. It is also referred to as Totals betting . Land-based and online sportsbooks offer different options for the total number of goals to be scored in a particular football event and punters bet on whether this number will be exceeded or not. The market has nothing to do with the outright winner of the match.
The most common goal margin for Over/Under bets is 2.5, but we will examine in detail all the possible variations. As far as football is concerned, punters may place Over/Under bets on team and player goals, corners, and cards. In the present article, we are going to concentrate on Over/Under Goals Bets and their specifics.
Example of Over/Under Goals Bet Market
As with other bet types, the best way to go about Over/Under Goals wagers is via an example. In an upcoming match from the English Premier League, Liverpool plays Watford. Let us examine the offered Over/Under Goals odds for this fixture, and analyze the most popular Over/Under 2.5 bet market.
|English Premier League Liverpool FC vs Watford FC|
|Over 1.5||1.07||Under 1.5||6.75|
|Over 2.5||1.27||Under 2.5||3.1|
|Over 3.5||1.71||Under 3.5||1.9|
|Over 4.5||2.55||Under 4.5||1.38|
|Over 5.5||4.2||Under 5.5||1.16|
|Over 6.5||7.75||Under 6.5||1.06|
|Over 7.5||15||Under 7.5||1.01|
In the example from the table above, а bookmaker offers odds of 3.10 on under 2.5 goals scored, and odds of 1.27 on more than 2.5 goals scored. If a punter places a bet of €10.00 on the match ending with over 2.5 goals, and the final score is 2:1, i.e. a total of 3 goals, then the bet wins and the total payout (including the initial stake) would be €12.70.
Betting €10.00 on Under 2.5 goals would be successful if the match produces less than 2.5 goals, and ends with a result of 2:0, for example. The potential payout here is higher – €31.00 (including the initial stake).
Types of Over/Under Goals Bets
Let us now proceed with the interpretation of the other possible variations of Over/Under bets. It is also worth-noting that other than betting on the Over/Under goals bet markets for the entire football match, punters may also opt for betting on the total number of goals only for the first or the second halves.
Over/Under Goals Bet Using Halves
The Over/Under Goals Bets are concerned with the total number of goals scored in a certain football match, i.e. the combined score of both opposing teams. The purpose of the over/under totals to be set at halves (intervals of 0.5), is to make sure that the combined number of scores in a football match will always be over or under the specified margin.
In other words, the half point prevents a push, or a tie, meaning that the bet will be refunded. In the table below, we provide an interpretation for the various types of Over/Under bets using intervals of 0.5.
|Over/Under Goals Bet Type||Explanation|
|Over/Under 0.5 Goals||The match ends with 1 or more goals. Although statistically the chances are pretty good, the odds are rather low.||This means betting on a goalless match. Such a bet market is suitable for matches featuring strong defenses and weak attacks.|
|Over/Under 1.5 Goals||The match should produce at least 2 goals for the bet to be successful.||The match finishes with only one goal or no goal at all.|
|Over/Under 2.5 Goals||This is the most common Over Goals bet type. Matches featuring strong attacks and weaker defenses tend to end with 3 or more goals.||This is the most popular Under Goals bet market. The bet wins if the match produces 2 or less than 2 goals.|
|Over/Under 3.5 Goals||For this bet to win, the match should yield at least 4 goals. Such matches usually feature strong attacks and weak defenses.||With a fixture ending with 3 or less than 3 goals, this bet would be a successful one.|
|Over/Under 4.5 Goals||Matches finishing with 5 or more goals are less common and are characterized by strong attacks of both teams or significant disparity between the teams.||Matches delivering 4 or fewer goals are statistically more plausible and thus odds are under Evens.|
|Over/Under 5.5 Goals||Fixtures exceeding 6 or more goals are quite rare. Such a score signals either a serious disparity between teams or very strong attacks and weak defenses.||Most matches end with 5 or fewer goals scored, so the offered odds are rather low.|
Bookies also offer prices for Over/Under 6.5 and 7.5 goals.
Over/Under Goals Bets Using Whole Numbers
While there are Over/Under bet types that use intervals of 0.5 to eliminate the chance of a push bet, there are also Over/Under bets that utilize whole numbers. The latter unfolds the opportunity for push bets, where sportsbooks refund the initial stakes of punters.
We can use again the above-mentioned example, Liverpool FC vs Watford FC, to illustrate how Over/Under bets using whole numbers work. If you place a bet on the match producing over 2 goals, and the final score is 1:1 (also 2:0 or 0:2), or a total of 2 goals, then your stake will be reimbursed.
Over/Under Asian Bets
Apart from Over/Under bets using halves and whole numbers, there are also the so-called Over/Under Asian bets. They are also referred to as splits. These markets are presented using decimals such as 0.25 and 0.75 that are added to the number of total goals in the match. With Over/under Asian bets, the stake is effectively split into two halves.
To better illustrate these bets, let’s take as an example an Over/Under 2.25 goals bet. It is made up of two halves. The first half of the stake is on over/under 2 goals, and the second half of the stake is on over/under 2.5 goals.
2.25 Over/Under Goals bet = Half of the stake on over/under 2 goals + Half of the stake on over/under 2.5 goals
With a bet on under 2.25 goals, if the match ends with less than 2 goals, the bet is completely won. If the final score of the match is 1:1, 0:2, or 2:0, i.e. there is a total of exactly 2 goals, the first half of the bet loses, while the second half of the stake is reimbursed. And, finally, if there are 3 or more goals, the bet is entirely lost.
With a bet on over 2.25 goals, if the match yields less than 2 goals, the bet will be entirely lost. If there are exactly 2 goals, half of the stake will be reimbursed, and half will be lost. In case of more than 3 goals, the bet will be completely won.
Factors to Consider
Now that we have covered the main types of Over/Under Goals bets and their specifics, we may continue with the review of some of the most important factors to take into consideration for this market.
- As already mentioned, the state of the attacking and defensive force of both teams is of essential importance. Matches featuring strong attacks and weak defenses tend to produce more goals, whereas the opposite, weak attacks and strong defenses usually generate fewer goals.
- The recent form of both teams should also be taken into account by punters seeking a long-term profit from Over/Under Goals bet markets.
- Statistical information such as teams’ and players’ shots on goal and shots on target is also to be diligently considered.
- The stage of the league or championship (or the importance of the game) is yet another factor, having a direct impact on the total number of goals scored in a match. Usually, championship finals tend to produce fewer goals due to the focus on defense of both teams.
- The weather conditions have an influence over players’ performance, which in its turn inevitably affects the total score.
Whether you have opted for Over/Under bets using intervals of 0.5, whole numbers, or splits, it is essential to pick matches delivering suitable opportunities for lucrative betting. Such matches would be, for example, ones featuring serious disparity between the opposing teams, where betting on match result markets would not bring sizable profits.
Deciding if a match will be a high or low-scoring event depends on assessing the attacks and defenses of both teams. Furthermore, punters may rely on statistics and head-to-head results to be as much precise in their predictions as possible.
With due diligence, analysis, and research bettors will be able to make long-term profits from Over/Under Goals bet markets.